SN Tripathi Memorial Lectures (2011)…

'In Uttar Pradesh Agriculture Productivity
Can Go Down Upto 25% or More on 20 oC Rise...'

Shri TN Dhar

Likely Consequences
3. Glacier melts would be enhanced: Already many Himalayan Glaciers have begun melting
4. Gulf Stream: Could slow down making North Atlantic very cold.
5. Water Flows in Snowfed Rivers could change affecting agriculture adversely
6. Crop Yields would suffer: In Asia & Africa these could go down by 15-20%. In U.P. it may go down by 20-25%.
7. At 3°C rise: Amazon Forests (largest in world) would collapse.
8. At 4°C to 5° C rise: Health casualties will sharply rise & all Himalayan Glaciers will disappear
9. Sea Level rise could range between 18 to 43 em.
10. Annual Loss due to climate change could be as high as 170 billion USD by 2030.

(12th COP) Kyoto at Japan (1997)

Held when protocol by international countries was developed (Protocol expires in 2012): Protocol signed by nearly all countries that promised Green House Gases (GHG) emission to be reduced to 5.2% below 1990 level by 2012. Protocol ratified by all countries except by Australia & USA. Australia signed in 2007. USA Stayed out.

IPCC (2007) Identified Impacts on India by 2030

Himalayan glaciers to shrink from 5 to 1 lakh,
• Per capita water availability will go down by the country from 1800 cum to 100 cum by2050,
• Agriculture ProductMty likely to go down by 30%,
• Snow fed rivers will carry more water in early summer months. Flows would be thin in September where after water
  requirements for agriculture may go up:
• Increase In flood Incidence & landslides,
• Coastal zones to suffer due to rise in sea level. Impact of Climate Change in U.P.
• Agriculture productivity can go down upto 25% or more onrise endangering
  food security. If the temperature rise is higher than 2°C the productivity can go down even further,